Aquinas Morning Briefing
January 13, 2026
The Institutional Fracture
We find ourselves this morning at the convergence of two historic tremors. Externally, the geopolitical order is digesting the shock of the Caracas transition and the escalation in Tehran. The “Venezuela Risk Premium” is pricing into energy markets with violence. Yet, the internal fracture is perhaps more consequential: the criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Powell.
The illusion of the “technocratic sanctuary” has shattered. Investors must now calculate a new variable: the Politicized Fed. With the CPI print due at 08:30 AM EST, the stakes are existential. A “hot” number above the expected 2.7% does not just imply higher rates—it provides ammunition for a total war between the White House and the central bank. Volatility is no longer cyclical; it is structural.
The Aquinas View
“Order is not the absence of conflict, but the proper arrangement of things to their end.”
The market is currently suffering from a disorder of causes. It seeks safety in Treasury bonds while the issuer of those bonds is in open institutional conflict. This is a contradiction. Logic dictates that when the foundation shakes, one does not build higher—one inspects the ground. We advise extreme prudence regarding duration today.
A Note to Our Readers:
Yesterday afternoon, as the first rumors of the Powell probe surfaced, our private clients received an immediate Flash Note advising a tactical rotation out of long-dated sovereigns. While the broader market hesitated, waiting for confirmation, our models recognized the signal in the noise. Those who acted preserved significant capital. Information is abundant; wisdom is scarce.
Real-time intelligence. Actionable truth.
